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3/24/2022

Is Builder COnfidence Decreasing?

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Is Builder Confidence Decreasing?

The national housing market index (HMI) has dropped once again, making this the fourth consecutive month that builders’ confidence has decreased in the U.S. The decline started from December where the index has slowly decreased from 84 to 79. NAHB Chief Economist, Robert Dietz, has stated that the “impact of elevated inflation and expected higher interest rates suggests caution for the second half of 2022.” However, the same may not be said for the state of Florida.

The NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index asks builders to rate housing market conditions based on their experiences. The builders rate their sales expectations from “good” to “poor,” and rate traffic of prospective buyers from “very high” to “very low.” These responses are then placed into a formula to produce an index. About 400 responses are obtained each month.

Why should we listen to this survey? Builders, with their experience and close contact with local market conditions, provide information about current housing market conditions and how home sales are likely to behave in the future. This is why Wall Street firms, the Federal Reserve, and other government officials have used the HMI over the past few years.

The HMI has contributed this hesitancy to the increase in price of lumber and other building materials. Lumber prices have increased dramatically since 2020, going from $242.80 to $1,193.00 per thousand board feet. This has driven construction costs up by 20% over the span of 12 months. There is also an expectation for higher interest rates as the year progresses. With all this in mind, we can see why builders’ confidence has continued to decrease nearly everywhere in the United States except Florida.

We have seen approved construction sites in North Miami, a Broward trailer park marked for redevelopment, and new sales for an oceanfront condo in Miami Beach just this month alone. Let’s not forget about the multi-million, lavish Florida condo on top of the Tiffany & Co. in Palm Beach. Four of the six largest hotel markets in the U.S. since 2019 consist of Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa, and Ft. Lauderdale. Despite the pandemic, Florida’s population growth of 360,758 between April 1, 2020 and April 1,2021 was the strongest annual increase since 2005-2006. Between 2021 and 2025, Florida’s growth is forecasted to average 1.41%.
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All in all, with the population increase and steady tourism markets, Florida homebuilders should be optimistic as buyer demand remains solid.
Bibliography:
“Lumber2022 Data - 1978-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart.” Lumber - 2022 Data - 1978-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart, https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber.
“NAHB: Examining the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).” Www.nahbclassic.org, www.nahbclassic.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=734&genericContentID=73820&channelID=311&_ga=2.46718564.251118127.1647704155-1365678725.1647511044. Accessed 25 Mar. 2022.
 
The Florida Legislature Office of Economic and Demographic Research 850. Vol. 487, 2022, p. 1402, edr.state.fl.us/Content/presentations/economic/FlEconomicOverview_2-17-22.pdf. Accessed 25 Mar. 2022.
 
“CoStar News - Miami Hotels Seeing Strong Recovery.” Product.costar.com, product.costar.com/home/news/shared/47279014?culture=en-US&source=sharedNewsEmail. Accessed 25 Mar. 2022.
 
“CoStar News - Breakfast above Tiffany’s? Unique Retail Rehab with Luxury Penthouse Makes It Possible.” Product.costar.com, product.costar.com/home/news/shared/779379527?culture=en-US&source=sharedNewsEmail. Accessed 25 Mar. 2022.
 
“Builders’ Confidence Dips Four Months in a Row.” Florida Realtors, www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2022/03/builders-confidence-dips-four-months-row. Accessed 25 Mar. 2022.


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3/6/2022

IWD 2022

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International Women's Day
Interview w/ Managing DIrector Magda Loureiro

 International Women's Day celebrates women's contributions and the vital role of women throughout history. It is a time to reflect on the cultural, political, and socioeconomic achievements of women. Managing Director Magda Loureiro shares a few thought on being a woman in the real estate and title industry.
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What is it like being the CEO and Managing Director of a company in a predominately and historically male industry?
​Throughout my 16 + year career in the real estate industry, I have had the pleasure of working with and being mentored by many inspirational entrepreneurial woman.

​I really have never felt that being a woman has been an obstacle in my career. On the contrary, I think my femininity and delicacy afforded me an advantage in being able to excel in the real estate and title industry.  I also vigorously support other female entrepreneurs in the industry and try to be a leader and mentor to the females that surround me.

If you could give your younger self advice, what would you say to her?
I would have probably told me to have fun, but not too much fun, and to invest in real estate as soon as possible.

Everyone always gave me the advise to find work that you love, but I think you need to look for work that makes you money so you can do the things you love.  I would tell myself to negotiate hard for the things I want. You cant be afraid of risk or failure or you will never excel in any career. The worst thing that can happen is that you don’t get what you want, so it never hurts to ask.

​I would tell myself to know my worth and make sure others can see it too. It's not about what you know, but who you know and a strong network and a recognizable brand will lead you to success.

What does it mean to be a woman today?
I think it is impossible to define what it means to be a woman in this short paragraph. A woman can be anything they want to be. I think some women were meant to be mothers and homemakers, and some were meant to be athletes and some were meant to be entrepreneurs and some, all three.

For me being a woman means living a life that I am proud of, filled with love and successful achievements and being surrounded by my family and friends who I can support.

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